MLB free agency: Top remaining free agents and our predictions for where they'll sign
Pete Alonso of the Mets celebrates after Game 5 of the NLCS against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Citi Field on Oct. 18. Credit: Jim McIsaac
The common belief is that Jan. 1 is the day for renewal — a new calendar, a new start and a chance to reset. But those in the baseball world know that all that actually comes in mid-February, when players finally herald winter’s thaw by reporting to Florida or Arizona for spring training.
The Dodgers winning the World Series? That’s last year’s news. On Feb. 12 (or thereabouts), everyone starts anew (yes, even you, White Sox).
The Mets signing Juan Soto predictably set off a free-agent frenzy in which big names such as Max Fried, Christian Walker, Willy Adames and Blake Snell joined new teams. There’s one little issue, though: A few very important players still don’t know where they’re headed or what the future will bring. Around these parts, the biggest question is whether Pete Alonso is coming back to Flushing.
Here’s where we think Alonso and some other prominent free agents will end up in the coming weeks:
The longer Alonso goes unsigned, the more nervous Mets fans get. The homegrown talent has made no secret of the fact that he wants to continue his career in Flushing, but there are factors standing in the way. He had something of a down year last season and will command the sort of nine-figure multiyear deal that might just make David Stearns balk, especially considering they just committed 15 years and $765 million to Soto.
That said, Alonso means more to the Mets than he does to any other organization. While Stearns doesn’t seem like the sentimental type, there’s no doubt that Alonso’s power numbers and his ability to perform in New York would fit nicely in this lineup. The other remaining first base options aren’t all that tantalizing unless the Mets decide to go for third baseman Alex Bregman and move Mark Vientos to first. Sometimes, though, the easiest solution also is the best one, and it’s entirely possible that Steve Cohen and Co. are waiting it out to reach a more franchise-friendly deal.
Prediction: Mets
The market for starting pitching has been nothing short of eye-watering, and Burnes is one of this year’s top prizes. His contract will be massive, and he’s going to go to a team that’s willing to spend. For a while there, it looked as if that would be the Red Sox, but they’ve now rounded out their rotation by trading for Garrett Crochet and signing Walker Buehler. Hey, is there a big-market team out there that already has shown a willingness to pay up? Did that same big-market team also lose Snell, its ace?
It sure did . . .
Prediction: Giants
As an international amateur free agent, Sasaki is in a different category from everyone else on this list because money isn’t at the forefront of negotiations. The 23-year-old pitching phenom out of Japan is under the 25-year-old threshold needed to enter true free agency as a former Nippon Professional Baseball player, so any team that lands him will have to sign him to only a minor-league deal, plus a modest bonus from international bonus pool money (Sasaki’s old club, Chiba Lotte, also will get a posting fee). Sasaki’s agent said he prefers a small-or-mid-market team after dealing with overwhelming media coverage in Japan. Japanese players have tended to prefer West Coast teams because it’s easier to travel back home, and the Dodgers and Padres reportedly have been in the mix. That said, one of those teams has much less media coverage than the other (though there’s something to be said for having Shohei Ohtani commanding most of the attention). Getting him will be a coup, as Sasaki will be under team control for six years.
Prediction: Padres
Bregman is one of the best defensive third basemen in MLB and no slouch at the plate, though his on-base numbers dipped last year. That said, he had a 4.1 WAR in 2024 and nearly every team could benefit from his well-rounded play, strike zone awareness, defensive range and bat-to-ball skills. Astros general manager Dana Brown recently told The Athletic that conversations with Bregman had “stalled,” which makes a reunion with his old team seem unlikely. There is, however, one team that exceeded expectations last year, needs a third baseman and has had a relatively quiet offseason — meaning it might have a little extra cash to spend.
Prediction: Tigers
The switch-hitting Santander has plenty of pop, hitting a career-high 44 homers last year, and at 30, he’s still got a few years left of his prime. Santander isn’t the perfect player — he’s slow, he’s a below-average outfielder and he doesn’t get on base all that much — but he represents instant offense. Plenty of teams could use that, especially considering his contract could be relatively modest compared to the other sluggers who signed this year. (He did reject his qualifying offer, so whoever signs him will lose at least a draft pick in 2025.) The Astros could use some more offense, especially if they don’t sign Bregman, and they need an outfielder.
Prediction: Astros
The reigning Home Run Derby champ went to the Dodgers for an absolute steal last offseason — one year, $23 million — but his 2024 performance certainly will command more than that. The outfielder had a .272/.339/.501 slash line, 33 homers and 99 RBIs before hitting .350 in the World Series.
That seems worthy of a reunion, doesn’t it?
Prediction: Dodgers
The Yankees don’t sound as if they’re hoping for a reunion, but there certainly are other teams that could use Torres’ skill set. While it’s true he suffered some mental gaffes while playing second base and on the basepaths, he still was a valuable cog in the lineup and had a .257/.330/.378 slash line. He should come relatively cheap, and that’s plenty tantalizing to teams. He’s familiar with the AL East, so why not stay there?
Prediction: Blue Jays
The common belief is that Jan. 1 is the day for renewal — a new calendar, a new start and a chance to reset. But those in the baseball world know that all that actually comes in mid-February, when players finally herald winter’s thaw by reporting to Florida or Arizona for spring training.
The Dodgers winning the World Series? That’s last year’s news. On Feb. 12 (or thereabouts), everyone starts anew (yes, even you, White Sox).
The Mets signing Juan Soto predictably set off a free-agent frenzy in which big names such as Max Fried, Christian Walker, Willy Adames and Blake Snell joined new teams. There’s one little issue, though: A few very important players still don’t know where they’re headed or what the future will bring. Around these parts, the biggest question is whether Pete Alonso is coming back to Flushing.
Here’s where we think Alonso and some other prominent free agents will end up in the coming weeks:
1. Pete Alonso
The longer Alonso goes unsigned, the more nervous Mets fans get. The homegrown talent has made no secret of the fact that he wants to continue his career in Flushing, but there are factors standing in the way. He had something of a down year last season and will command the sort of nine-figure multiyear deal that might just make David Stearns balk, especially considering they just committed 15 years and $765 million to Soto.
That said, Alonso means more to the Mets than he does to any other organization. While Stearns doesn’t seem like the sentimental type, there’s no doubt that Alonso’s power numbers and his ability to perform in New York would fit nicely in this lineup. The other remaining first base options aren’t all that tantalizing unless the Mets decide to go for third baseman Alex Bregman and move Mark Vientos to first. Sometimes, though, the easiest solution also is the best one, and it’s entirely possible that Steve Cohen and Co. are waiting it out to reach a more franchise-friendly deal.
Prediction: Mets
2. Corbin Burnes
The market for starting pitching has been nothing short of eye-watering, and Burnes is one of this year’s top prizes. His contract will be massive, and he’s going to go to a team that’s willing to spend. For a while there, it looked as if that would be the Red Sox, but they’ve now rounded out their rotation by trading for Garrett Crochet and signing Walker Buehler. Hey, is there a big-market team out there that already has shown a willingness to pay up? Did that same big-market team also lose Snell, its ace?
It sure did . . .
Prediction: Giants
3. Roki Sasaki
As an international amateur free agent, Sasaki is in a different category from everyone else on this list because money isn’t at the forefront of negotiations. The 23-year-old pitching phenom out of Japan is under the 25-year-old threshold needed to enter true free agency as a former Nippon Professional Baseball player, so any team that lands him will have to sign him to only a minor-league deal, plus a modest bonus from international bonus pool money (Sasaki’s old club, Chiba Lotte, also will get a posting fee). Sasaki’s agent said he prefers a small-or-mid-market team after dealing with overwhelming media coverage in Japan. Japanese players have tended to prefer West Coast teams because it’s easier to travel back home, and the Dodgers and Padres reportedly have been in the mix. That said, one of those teams has much less media coverage than the other (though there’s something to be said for having Shohei Ohtani commanding most of the attention). Getting him will be a coup, as Sasaki will be under team control for six years.
Prediction: Padres
4. Alex Bregman
Bregman is one of the best defensive third basemen in MLB and no slouch at the plate, though his on-base numbers dipped last year. That said, he had a 4.1 WAR in 2024 and nearly every team could benefit from his well-rounded play, strike zone awareness, defensive range and bat-to-ball skills. Astros general manager Dana Brown recently told The Athletic that conversations with Bregman had “stalled,” which makes a reunion with his old team seem unlikely. There is, however, one team that exceeded expectations last year, needs a third baseman and has had a relatively quiet offseason — meaning it might have a little extra cash to spend.
Prediction: Tigers
5. Anthony Santander
The switch-hitting Santander has plenty of pop, hitting a career-high 44 homers last year, and at 30, he’s still got a few years left of his prime. Santander isn’t the perfect player — he’s slow, he’s a below-average outfielder and he doesn’t get on base all that much — but he represents instant offense. Plenty of teams could use that, especially considering his contract could be relatively modest compared to the other sluggers who signed this year. (He did reject his qualifying offer, so whoever signs him will lose at least a draft pick in 2025.) The Astros could use some more offense, especially if they don’t sign Bregman, and they need an outfielder.
Prediction: Astros
6. Teoscar Hernandez
The reigning Home Run Derby champ went to the Dodgers for an absolute steal last offseason — one year, $23 million — but his 2024 performance certainly will command more than that. The outfielder had a .272/.339/.501 slash line, 33 homers and 99 RBIs before hitting .350 in the World Series.
That seems worthy of a reunion, doesn’t it?
Prediction: Dodgers
7. Gleyber Torres
The Yankees don’t sound as if they’re hoping for a reunion, but there certainly are other teams that could use Torres’ skill set. While it’s true he suffered some mental gaffes while playing second base and on the basepaths, he still was a valuable cog in the lineup and had a .257/.330/.378 slash line. He should come relatively cheap, and that’s plenty tantalizing to teams. He’s familiar with the AL East, so why not stay there?
Prediction: Blue Jays
Laura Albanese is a reporter, feature writer and columnist covering local professional sports teams; she began at Newsday in 2007 as an intern.
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